T2D AID Intel
Competitive Ops
Wargaming

Pressure-test your strategy before the market does.

Pre-built healthtech scenarios — FDA actions, payer decisions, competitor launches, M&A — ready to drop into a 90-minute exercise.

How it worksScenario LibraryTeam SetupRun SimulationAfter-Action Review
Auto-refreshed daily

This list is regenerated every day by an AI strategist that ranks the most-likely scenarios for the next 6 months in the U.S. T2D AID market — drawing on live FDA, payer, clinical, and competitor market data. Scenarios are sorted by estimated likelihood (highest first).

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Regulatory
High

Competitor CGM partner issues Class I recall

Trigger · FDA Class I recall on a CGM brand integrated with a competitor pump

Horizon
0–60 days
Primary actor
FDA + CGM partner

Blue objectiveConvert displaced patients without overpromising or triggering off-label exposure.

  • Recall blocks new prescriptions for ~6 weeks
  • Endo societies issue interim guidance within 72 hours
  • Payers will demand documentation before switching coverage
Stage scenario
M&A
High

Eli Lilly acquires a tubed pump maker

Trigger · Pharma giant announces $2–4B acquisition of a small AID company

Horizon
12–24 months
Primary actor
Eli Lilly + target

Blue objectiveDefend ecosystem narrative; secure GLP-1 + AID bundle conversations with top 5 payers.

  • GLP-1 cash war chest enables aggressive bundle pricing
  • Sales force overlap could double their endo coverage
  • Tirzepatide + AID 'connected care' story resets the category
Stage scenario
Access / Payer
Medium

CMS proposes bundled AID + CGM payment

Trigger · CMS releases proposed rule for combined AID/CGM monthly bundle

Horizon
6–12 months
Primary actor
CMS

Blue objectiveShape comment period; protect ASP; avoid race-to-bottom on hardware.

  • Bundle math favors tubeless if disposables are included
  • Comment window is 60 days; AdvaMed will coordinate
  • Commercial payers historically follow CMS within 18 months
Stage scenario
Clinical
Medium

Competitor T2D pivotal hits primary endpoint

Trigger · Press release: TIR improvement statistically significant in T2D pivotal

Horizon
0–90 days
Primary actor
Competitor + KOLs

Blue objectiveReframe on real-world evidence, ease of use, and total cost of care.

  • Effect size matters — single-digit TIR delta is contestable
  • Subgroup analyses (insulin-naive vs MDI) drive label
  • ADA/EASD presentations within 6 months
Stage scenario
Commercial
Medium

Tubeless competitor launches algorithm 2.0

Trigger · OTA update enables new dosing algorithm + meal detection

Horizon
0–30 days
Primary actor
Competitor R&D

Blue objectiveCounter-position on safety, evidence, and clinician control.

  • OTA = no hardware refresh required for installed base
  • Endo training capacity is the rate-limiter
  • Safety signal would be visible in MAUDE within 90 days
Stage scenario
Narrative
High

Viral patient-safety story on social

Trigger · TikTok thread alleging dosing error gains 5M+ views in 48h

Horizon
0–14 days
Primary actor
Patient advocates + media

Blue objectiveProtect trust without legal exposure; mobilize KOLs and patient ambassadors.

  • Algorithm escalation on platforms is non-linear
  • Regulatory inquiry possible if pattern emerges
  • Counter-evidence must be patient-relatable, not clinical jargon
Stage scenario